Rays resume playoff push in second test with Orioles

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays own the best road record of any team in the majors this season, in part due to their success at Baltimore's Camden Yards. The postseason contenders will have their sights set on another victory over the homestanding Orioles when the two American League East foes continue a three-game series this evening.

Tampa Bay improved to 40-25 on the road and 6-1 at Camden Yards in 2010 by virtue of last night's 4-1 triumph. The victory, the fifth in the last six games for the Rays, kept Joe Maddon's club 1 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees in the race for home-field advantage throughout the upcoming AL Playoffs as well as first place in the league's East Division.

Matt Garza (14-7) continued his own dominance of the Orioles in Friday's opener, with the Tampa hurler yielding one run over the first 5 2/3 innings to notch his 14th win of the season. Garza moved to 9-1 lifetime against Baltimore and 6-0 in eight starts at Camden Yards.

"He really utilized his changeup," Maddon said of Garza. "He was throwing it on some really odd counts, 2-2, 3-2 pitches, which prevented [the Orioles] from just sitting hard and I think that was the big difference [Friday]."

Carl Crawford paced the Rays offensively with three hits, including an RBI single in the top of the third that knocked in the game's first run. Reid Brignac finished 2-for-4 with a run-scoring base hit of his own for Tampa Bay, now 10-3 against the bottom-feeding Orioles so far this season.

Baltimore's Kevin Millwood (3-15) became the majors' first 15-game loser of the year after the veteran righty was reached for four runs and issued five walks in a 5 2/3-inning stint.

"Any time you walk five guys and hit a guy against a team like that, you're going to struggle to win," Millwood said afterward.

The Orioles have now dropped three in a row following a four-game winning streak and will call upon Jeremy Guthrie to end the team's skid. If the right- hander is able to duplicate the line of his most recent start, Baltimore should have a good chance of doing so.

Guthrie limited the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to four hits and a walk over 8 1/3 shutout innings to lead the O's to a 1-0 verdict this past Sunday. The effort continued a strong second half for the former first-round draft choice, as he's now 5-2 with an excellent 2.51 earned run average in nine outings following the All-Star break.

The 31-year-old also shut down the Rays in a matchup in St. Petersburg last month, surrendering a mere two hits over six scoreless innings in Baltimore's 5-0 win on August 13. Guthrie did struggle in two subsequent starts, allowing 12 runs (11 earned) over a combined 14 2/3 innings to suffer back-to-back defeats to Seattle and the Chicago White Sox, before rebounding with last weekend's gem.

For his career, Guthrie is 4-7 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 appearances (12 starts) versus Tampa Bay.

James Shields draws the assignment for the Rays tonight and has also put together a nice second-half surge. The durable righty has won six of eight decisions since the break and enters this contest riding a three-start winning streak.

Shields has pitched to a 2.75 ERA and fanned 24 batters in 19 2/3 innings over the course of his unbeaten stretch, which came after he was outdueled by Guthrie in that August 13 clash with the Orioles. In that game, the 28-year- old was tagged for four runs and 10 hits in only five frames.

In his latest start, Shields permitted three runs and struck out eight through 6 2/3 innings to defeat Boston on Sunday, six days after he registered 10 punchouts and tossed six innings of three-run ball (two earned) in a road win over the Angels.

Shields does sport a 7-3 record with a 3.32 ERA in 18 career encounters with the Orioles and has never lost at Camden Yards, having amassed a 4-0 mark with a 3.04 ERA in eight overall starts at the venue.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.