Dodgers hoping to further cripple Giants' playoff hopes

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Cain tries to make it two straight wins against the club that has given him more trouble than any other team in his young career when the San Francisco Giants continue their three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers this evening at Dodger Stadium.

Cain is a miserable 1-8 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 3.94 ERA in 15 starts. However, his lone win against them came the last time he faced them back on August 1, when he scattered four hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings.

"It's obviously been a problem beating [the Dodgers]," Cain said after that elusive first victory. "It's one of those things where definitely I wanted to go out and win."

Cain, who is 10-10 with a 3.11 ERA on the year, did not get a decision on Sunday against Arizona, as he allowed three runs and six hits in 6 1/3 innings of his team's 9-7 win. He also struck out seven and walked a batter.

Opposing him will be Ted Lilly, who will be trying to rebound from his first loss as a Dodger.

Lilly saw his five-start winning streak come to an end Sunday in Colorado, as the Rockies reached him for seven runs and nine hits in just four innings. It was his first loss cine July 9 and dropped him to 8-9 on the season, while raising his earned run average to 3.59.

The 34-year-old left-hander is 3-1 with a 5.12 ERA in five starts against the Giants.

On Friday, Chad Billingsley was strong through eight innings of work and drove in the game-winning runs at the plate to carry Los Angeles to a 4-2 win in the opener of this set.

Billingsley (11-8) yielded two unearned runs on only two hits while walking a pair and fanning seven, with the right-hander combining with Hung-Chi Kuo to set down the last 10 Giants' hitters as the Dodgers ended a brief two-game slide. Kuo recorded his eighth save of the season.

"I seem to catch the Giants on my good day," Billingsley said. "The first few innings I was ahead on my fastball. As the game progressed, I threw more changeups. I could have gone out for the ninth if they wanted me to."

Rod Barajas continued his hot hitting since joining the Dodgers -- a team he grew up rooting for -- by hitting a home run in last night's triumph. Casey Blake went 2-for-3 with a pair of runs scored for Los Angeles, which has now won seven of 13 matchups with the Giants thus far in 2010.

Barry Zito's (8-11) misery continued, as the Giants lefty was charged with four runs on four hits and four walks while fanning five in just four innings to suffer the loss. He remained winless in his last 10 games, the longest streak of his career.

San Francisco stayed three games behind NL West-leading San Diego, which lost at home to Colorado Friday night, but fell to three games behind Philadelphia in the race for the NL Wild Card.

The Giants had won in five of their past six meetings with the Dodgers prior to Friday's setback.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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